Russian Federation budget income and expenses table. Export ratings

Actual federal budget revenues
year		trillion rub.
2007	7,781
2008	9,276
2009	7,338
2010	8,305
2011	11,368
2012	12,856
2013	13,020
2014	14,497
2015	13,659
2016	13,460
2017	15,089

Actual federal budget expenditures
year		trillion rub.
2007	5,987
2008	7,567
2009	9,637
2010	10,116
2011	10,926
2012	12,895
2013	13,343
2014	14,832
2015	15,620
2016	16,416
2017	16,420
Data taken from the official website

In 2018, for the first time in 7 years, the Russian budget was executed with a surplus: the excess of revenues over expenses amounted to 2.7% of GDP. The budget deficit in 2017 was 1.4% of GDP.

According to the preliminary assessment of the Ministry of Finance, the implementation of the main indicators of the federal budget for 2018 amounted to:

- volume of income received - 19.455 trillion rubles. or 102.7% of the approved total budget revenues;

— execution of expenses — 16.7 billion rubles. (99.4%), or 95.5% of budget expenses taking into account the changes made.

— surplus — 2.746 trillion rubles.

The balance of sources of internal and external financing of the federal budget deficit amounted to (-) 2.610 trillion rubles. and (-) 135.466 billion rubles. respectively.

Federal budget revenues

The maximum volumes of administered income are ensured:

Federal Tax Service - in the amount of 11.927 trillion rubles, or 102.4% of projected income indicators;

Federal Customs Service - in the amount of 6.063 trillion rubles. (102.1%);

Other federal bodies - in the amount of 1.465 trillion rubles. (107.2%).

National Welfare Fund

The amount of funds of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) in ruble equivalent increased in 2018 - from 3.753 trillion rubles. as of January 1, 2018 to RUB 4.036 trillion. as of January 1, 2019

In order to co-finance the formation of pension savings of insured persons who paid additional insurance contributions for a funded pension, in April 2018, part of the NWF funds in accounts with the Bank of Russia in the amount of 59.2 million pounds sterling was sold for 5.125 billion rubles, and the proceeds were credited to a single federal budget account.

In order to ensure balance (cover the deficit) of the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation, in November-December 2018, part of the NWF funds in accounts with the Bank of Russia in the amount of $6.765 billion, 6.712 billion euros, 1.75 billion pounds sterling was sold for 1.108 trillion rubles. , and the proceeds are credited to the account for recording federal budget funds in the currency of the Russian Federation. In June 2018, funds in foreign currencies in the amounts of $6.411 billion, 5.625 billion euros and 1.096 billion pounds sterling (total equivalent as of the date of enrollment - 906.722 billion rubles), acquired from federal budget funds in 2017 within the scope of additional oil and gas federal budget revenues were credited to the accounts for recording funds of the National Welfare Fund in the corresponding foreign currencies.

The exchange rate difference from the revaluation of the fund’s assets for 2018 amounted to 489.717 billion rubles. Rambler reports this.

Federal budget

From an economic point of view, the federal budget is a set of monetary relations regarding the redistribution of national income and part of the national wealth for accumulation, distribution and further expenditure on the execution of spending powers within the competence of the Russian Federation.

In the budget transparency ranking compiled by the International Budget Partnership (IBP), Russia took 10th place in the world (out of 100 countries studied) at the end of 2012, ahead of Germany, Spain and Italy.

Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget include federal budget revenues from the payment of:

Tax on the extraction of mineral resources in the form of hydrocarbon raw materials (oil, combustible natural gas from all types of hydrocarbon raw material deposits, gas condensate from all types of hydrocarbon raw material deposits);
- export customs duties on crude oil;
- export customs duties on natural gas;
- export customs duties on goods produced from oil...

Not long ago, the Russian Ministry of Finance balanced the budget for 2017–2018, reducing its “opportunities” by 6 and 9%, respectively. The main efforts of fiscal policy concern reducing the current deficit:

2017 – 2.7 trillion rubles (3.2%);
2018 – 1.98 trillion rubles (2.2%).

All that remains is to study in more detail what the federal budget for 2018 is. To do this, you should consider in more detail the latest news regarding the announced issue.

Cheaper priorities

Not long ago, Dmitry Medvedev announced that expenses on the country’s priority projects in the designated time period are measured at 150 billion rubles. It was also said that for 9 out of 11 goals there is certainty regarding the main indicator. It turns out that the designated criterion exists in only 7 projects. Two of them do not exist at all, and another 3 will not be financed next year.

In the summer of 2016, the ministry talked about distributing more than 1% of budget-level expenses to the needs of priority projects. Then we were talking about 160 billion rubles, but after reserving funds by Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, this figure turned out to be only 128 billion rubles. The declared funds can be used to cover unforeseen expenses. True, one should also take into account the small fact that during the reservation, the same “casket” was also provided for carrying out emergency restoration work or other activities related to the elimination of emergency situations.

As a result, it turns out that all priority projects will be completed after inclusion in certain items of the country’s budget.

Unconditional expenses

So far, there are no other opportunities to raise funds for the treasury. It turns out that the current budget boasts one interesting feature - the absence of conditionally approved expenses.

Until 2016, the government reserved the right to book in The treasury of the Russian Federation has undistributed funds (about 2.5% for next year and 5% for the next). Previously, this money was distributed for various needs only in the spring, when the planned budget adjustment took place. But then the effective practice had to be abolished along with the existing rules for it. In 2017, officials came to their senses that the former restrictions turned out to be very helpful, so they had to suddenly introduce a corresponding bill to the Duma. However, for 2018–2019, conditionally approved expenses have not yet been determined.

The explanation for this is quite logical - against the backdrop of deteriorating forecasts for the Russian and world economies, the receipt of surplus income from the oil and gas sector is not planned, therefore it is better to temporarily suspend the provision of the Budget Code regarding the special rule.

This design of the Russian treasury reflected the ability of managers of public funds to defend their expenses. For example, representatives of the state defense order failed to significantly increase the level of revenues.

Redistribution for war

Compared to last year, budget allocations for the “National Defense” section will be lower by 1 trillion rubles. As a result, the total amount of expenses in the noted industry decreased from 23.7 to 17.6%.

Lobbyists from the Far East remained at a loss: the state program “Socio-economic development of the Far East” achieved only 45% of funding from the 2017 level.

The following government programs lost 20 to 30% of subsidies:

Health development;
Energy efficiency and energy development;
Promotion of employment;
Development of shipbuilding and technology for the development of offshore fields;
Economic development and innovative economy.

But not everything is as sad as it seems from the outside. It turns out that as many as 9 government programs have increased costs. The most dramatic increase of 67% concerns the socio-economic development of the Kaliningrad region. It was also decided to increase allocations by at least 20% for the program “Public Finance Management and Regulation of Financial Markets” and “Development of Physical Culture and Sports.”

On whose shoulders will Russia's budget fall in 2018?

There are only two existing sources of financing for the Russian treasury: the Russian Federation Reserve Fund and loans. At the same time, the first “wallet” will use up its reserves already in 2017, while the National Welfare Fund will say goodbye to the funds set aside for a rainy day closer to 2019.

Nevertheless, the Russian Ministry of Finance plans to increase the volume of “borrowed” funds on the domestic market by 30% – up to 1.05 trillion per year. This means that the resulting volume of public debt will remain at a safe level - less than 20% of GDP.

According to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, 66% of the treasury deficit is now financed through investments from the Reserve Fund. The rest lies on the shoulders of privatization and internal debts. In 2018, significant revenues from privatization are not planned, therefore, in order not to waste the remnants of the existing reserve, the volume of internal borrowing will have to be increased.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation directs public attention to the fact that the volume of these placements will not greatly affect the general state of the financial market and the capabilities of the banking sector itself in the field of lending to the population. For now, such a situation is quite possible, because there is good liquidity in the market. In this matter, it is important not to overdo it, so that investors do not end up demanding short securities and high rates. At the moment, the Ministry of Finance continues to finance the existing deficit of their Reserve Fund funds - it sells currency to the Bank of Russia. Last year, these sales reached 2.8 trillion rubles. But both companies and the general population demonstrate a stable tendency to accumulate personal savings. In light of this situation, lending volumes have practically frozen at the same level. The result is that a structural liquidity surplus appears in the banking system. It is he who will be present in the Russian budget for the entire next year.

Worsening prognosis

Unfortunately, against the backdrop of the current situation with the impossibility of resolving the situation with stabilization of the economic situation in Russia, the forecast for its development leaves much to be desired. In this case, the possibility of developing the Russian budget in subsequent years does not look too rosy.

The Central Bank decided to take several important steps in order to stabilize the current situation. The problem is that excess funds put downward pressure on the economy's rate, thereby stimulating growth in consumption and lending.

In order to absorb liquidity, it was decided to hold deposit auctions and properly place BR bonds. In 2018, the growth of borrowings is considered as the same instrument for absorbing liquidity.

So far, the first chapter of the draft budget for next year contains the main parameters in which the standard value for the growth of the reserve will increase to 6 trillion rubles. At the same time, the sections concerning sources of financing the deficit note the complete expenditure of the Reserve Fund back in 2017. From the National Welfare Fund, 660 billion rubles are used until the end of December, in 2018 - 1.1 trillion rubles, while in 2019 - 137 billion rubles. After all this, the treasured “casket” will only contain funds that have nothing to do with the government’s promise to develop existing infrastructure projects.

It turns out that in the text of the draft budget for the coming years there are contradictions in some articles, which can be explained by the lack of necessary amendments in the Budget Code.

Officials propose to base it on the part where the sources of financing the current deficit are indicated. There remains a conflict between the ministries of economic development and finance regarding the influence of the treasury on Russia's economic growth. According to representatives of the Ministry of Finance, by the beginning of 2018, GDP will grow by 0.6%, while by 2019 it will be at around 1.7%. The Ministry of Economic Development insists on a completely different economic forecast. Baseline scenario for the coming years: GDP growth in 2017 – 0.2%, 2018 – 0.9%, 2019 – 1.2%.

The government's final decision regarding the final steps towards approving the budget for the future period will be made at the end of autumn of this year.

2017 has just begun, and you can already find out information about what it will be like Russian budget for 2018. For the state, the main source of filling the state treasury is oil, so the amount of income in the main piggy bank of the country depends on the prices for this type of fuel.

Almost all analysts claim that after many years of decline, in 2018 the country’s economy will again begin its moderate growth. In the period under review, the percentage of GDP growth will be 1.7. Based on the indicators presented in the document, we can safely say that the country is moving towards stability and will finally be able to get out of the crisis hole.

The first calculations for the period under review were approved in the state budget for 2016 - 2018. But this data has changed slightly over the past few months, so it is advisable to consider the document that was signed by the President of Russia on December 19, 2016.

Taking into account the changing economic situation of the country, citizens can see adequate figures in the draft budget for 2017, as well as for the planning period 2018-2019. The document shows that expected revenues will be about 14 trillion. 10 million 028 thousand 492 rubles (in 2017) and 14 trillion. 25 million 844 thousand 811 rubles (in planning periods).

Let us note that in the year under review the Russian Federation is unlikely to be able to reach a self-sustaining level. The country's draft budget for 2016-2018 shows that there will be excess spending, i.e. deficit. In 2018, the budget deficit will be about 2 trillion. rubles

But even this fact can please us, because the indicator in question decreases every year. Already in 2019, this figure will almost halve and amount to 1 trillion. rubles

Each coefficient is determined based on annual inflation of 4%. But the most important tool for forming the state budget is oil and the exchange rate, which is closely interconnected with it. According to the forecast from well-known analysts, the price per barrel of “black gold” in 2018 is expected to be $40. Keep in mind that this is an annual average that may change in one direction or the other.

At the end of the previous year, OPEC member states came to the conclusion that it was necessary to reduce fuel production, thereby triggering an increase in prices for this type of product. Whether in the future period it will be possible to keep the price at the declared level and prevent its sharp jumps, even the most experienced specialists cannot yet predict.

If we assume that prices remain stable, then there will be no exchange rate fluctuations in 2017. Let's say more, the ruble exchange rate against the dollar will be 67.5 rubles, and in 2018 it will rise to 68 rubles per dollar.

These calculations took into account the ongoing sanctions policy against Russia, as well as the measures taken by the government to address the current situation. In general, we can say that the “optimistic” scenario is being realized, although the “base” and “target” scenarios are also included in the budget.

To compensate for price instability and allow the 2018 federal budget for the oil and gas industry to come true, the Russian government will try to:

Completely change tax legislation during 2018 - 2020. In particular, there will be an increase in mineral extraction tax rates, the abolition of export duties and the introduction of an added income tax (currently in a pilot version).
Adjustment of minimum dividends by 2 times (this includes government shares and companies).
Introduction of a unified methodological framework.

Correlation dependence of GDP

Looking at the data from previous years, you can see that it was 20%. According to analysts, over the next few years this figure will decrease significantly.

For example, in 2018 the percentage of income will not exceed 15.1% and already in 2019 - 15%. This decline is closely related to the nominal decrease in oil and gas revenues, even considering that they are now beginning to actively grow. Even these factors will not help reach the level of previous years. Let us note that previously oil and gas revenues amounted to about 10% of GDP.

Budget expenditures for social needs

Despite the precarious situation of the country's economy, the state does not cease to sponsor all socially significant events. The following expenditure items are planned in the federal budget for the next financial period (2018-2019):

“Accessible environment” intended for people with disabilities - 3 million 724 thousand rubles.
Prevention of HIV, as well as hepatitis B and C - 17 million 130 thousand rubles.
Subsidies aimed at obtaining education for children from the Crimean region - 1 million 578 thousand rubles.
Cash subsidies for combat veterans - more than 10 million rubles.

The agro-industrial complex did not stand aside either. Banks that provide loan amounts to enterprises in the agricultural industry will receive from the state lost profits in the total amount of 12 million 652 thousand rubles for 2018, and in 2019 the amount will be 12 million 342 rubles.

What can regions expect?

Based on the federal budget for , regions can count on new government loans. Examining the indicators for 2016, we can come to the conclusion that they will almost double - up to 200 billion rubles. But the subjects will receive these amounts only in 2018 - already in 2019 the loans will amount to only 50 billion rubles and this will continue for 5 years.

The Vedomosti newspaper reported that V.V. Putin “asked” his subordinates to calculate additional costs for medicine, education and infrastructure. Interestingly, spending on these sectors is planned to increase only after his victory in the. It is difficult to understand why the budget for 2018-2019 deprives citizens of the right to study and receive treatment normally now, and what may change later.

What's happening now

The draft budget, which was approved by the State Duma on November 24, contains 318 documents with a total of more than 10 thousand pages. The explanatory note to it alone contains 470 pages. But it’s not difficult to understand if you know the key numbers. So, the total amount of expenses is 16 trillion 529 billion rubles. Of this, 36.4% will be spent on social services, 29% on defense, and 14.7% on the national economy.

It is much more interesting to look at the numbers from the other side. Since social expenses also include financing of the Pension Fund, the real figures are as follows:

Education – 663 billion rubles.
Medicine – 460 billion rubles.
Expenditures on media – 80 billion rubles.
Physical education and sports – 59.2 billion rubles.
Army – 2.77 trillion. rub.
Police – 2.11 trillion. rub.

In principle, there is nothing more to say. It is already clear that Russians are waiting for a holiday show on TV and not free medicine and education. It is significant that the 2018 budget law proposes to allocate as much as 2.3 billion rubles for youth policy. That is, practically nothing.

Is everything so bad with money?

As our Prime Minister said, there is no money. Just how true is this if, according to the Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Vasily Pozdyshev, 800 billion will be allocated for the reorganization of B&N Bank and FC Otkritie. For a minute, this is almost two annual budgets of the Ministry of Health. Moreover, the funds allocated for rehabilitation are unlikely to return to the budget.

If “there is no money,” then where did it come from? The answer lies in the budget rule. The trick is that the budget receives funds from the sale of hydrocarbons at prices up to $40 per barrel. Everything that exceeds this amount is considered excess income and is directed to extra-budgetary funds.

Moreover, not everything is clear with them either. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov admitted that in December 2017, the Reserve Fund was exhausted. The volume of the National Welfare Fund has also decreased significantly. As of January 1, 2018, only 3.7 trillion rubles remained in the National Welfare Fund.

A somewhat surprising amount considering the price of oil in 2017. According to the same Ministry of Finance, the average price of a barrel for the first 11 months was $52.17 per barrel. Where did the money go?

Currency interventions

From January 15, 2018 to mid-February, the Ministry of Finance will purchase foreign currency worth 275 billion rubles. To carry out a similar operation in December 2017, 203.9 billion were spent. In this way, reserves and gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia are created. According to the Central Bank, as of January 5, 2018, they amounted to $432.6 billion.

To very roughly round up, the state has a “stash” of $3,000 for each citizen, approximately 170,000 rubles. At the same time, medical care costs 3,500 rubles per year. And now Vladimir Vladimirovich is hinting at the possibility of uncorking the “little egg”. Provided that citizens vote correctly.

The problem is that Russia is beginning to lag behind other states. The drain of money from the economy has caused inflation to drop to 2.5%. But at the same time, the level of GDP dropped, it amounted to only 1.7% in annual terms. During the same time, the US and EU grew by about 3%, and China by 6.9%. But this is not the saddest thing.

The Ministry of Economic Development predicts that in 2018-2020 the situation will not change, and GDP growth will be at the level of 2.1-2.2%. Since the 2018 budget draft and government policy do not provide for a fundamental change in course, the gap with other powers will only increase.

The country's main financial document was adopted in the first reading. On October 27, the State Duma, by a vote of 350 deputies to 61, adopted in the first reading the draft federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2018 and for the planning period 2019–2020 presented by the government (on 10 thousand 526 pages).

The practice of three-year planning of federal revenues and expenditures, abolished in 2015 due to the effect of sanctions, falling oil prices and financial market volatility, was resumed in the 2017 budget, since the negative impact of the above factors was neutralized.

A year without any worries

The new budget confirms that the national financial emergency is over and provides a good basis for understanding what has been, what will be and what will put the heart at ease. Such “gypsy” allusions are all the more appropriate since government officials, as a rule, play it safe in numbers three times - and not with the goal of “gilding the handle,” but for additional reserve and maneuver in case of emergency.

Let's take a look, for example, at last year's budget, which was adopted with the following estimated characteristics:

Revenues - 13.488 trillion rubles;

Expenses - 16.241 trillion rubles;

Deficit - 2.753 trillion rubles;

- oil “cut-off bar” (per barrel) - $40;

The average annual dollar exchange rate is 67 rubles;

Inflation - up to 4%;

GDP - 86.8 trillion rubles.

Since the “black gold” of the Urals brand was consistently traded in the range of $45–55 throughout 2017, a correction to the budgeted figure could not be avoided. In May, the Russian Ministry of Finance reluctantly agreed to raise the “cut-off bar” to $45.6 per barrel, and also reduce the deficit to 1.9 trillion rubles through additional revenues. Although the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov and warned that this decision could jeopardize the stability of the implementation of budgetary obligations and the sustainability of macroeconomic indicators. But the ruble-dollar exchange rate rose above 60 a few times, not even coming close to the figure budgeted for 2017.

Life will be better

Some consider this approach to the budget to be a manifestation of high responsibility and professionalism, while others consider it “accounting thinking” that impedes economic growth. Let’s not rush into assessments, let’s look at the estimated characteristics of the 2018 budget, which after the first reading look like this (in parentheses are the government’s proposed project figures):

Revenues - 15.258 (15.182) trillion rubles;

Expenses - 16.529 (16.514) trillion rubles;

Deficit - 1.271 (1.332) trillion rubles;

- “cut-off bar” for oil (per barrel) - $43.8;

The average annual dollar exchange rate has not been established;

Inflation - 4%;

GDP - 97.462 trillion rubles.

What do we see in this picture? That planned budget revenues will (taking into account four percent inflation) increase, expenses and deficits will decrease, and GDP should grow, if you believe the stated figures, by almost 7.9%!

If we take the official figure for the planned GDP growth in 2018, which is 1.7%, then in this case either the inflation rate should be increased to 10.4%, or the projected GDP should be reduced to 91.806 trillion rubles, or these indicators should not be changed so much , but both at once.

To complete the impression, let’s compare the government’s current budget proposals with its last year’s forecasts, which appear in the 2017 budget:

Revenues - 14.028 trillion rubles;

Expenses - 16.04 trillion rubles;

Deficit - 2.011 trillion. rubles;

- “cut-off bar” for oil (per barrel) - $40;

The average annual dollar exchange rate is 68.3;

Inflation - 4%;

GDP - 92.296 trillion rubles.

It is not difficult to see that the financial and economic results year on year are much more optimistic than the Russian government planned last fall. As a result, budget revenues increased by 1.2 trillion rubles, expenditures by 430 billion rubles, and projected GDP by more than 5 trillion rubles.

Non-peacetime budget

All this means that in general the situation in the country is developing much more positively than even its leadership expected. Therefore, the president’s reaction to all the “eccentricities” of the government, as well as individual ministries and departments, is generally favorable, although its boundaries are far from rubber-stamp.

At the same time, many experts note an extremely high level of closed (secret and top secret) expenditure items in the 2018 budget - 2.833 trillion rubles, or 17.44% of all government spending - which, in their opinion, should be much lower.

Of course, this is a “flaw” of the government, which failed (but, most likely, simply did not have the opportunity) to bring these expenses beyond the budget. But at the same time - a clear indication of those incidental circumstances that no one talks about out loud. And they, these circumstances, are simple and understandable.

The Russian Federation today - whether we like it or not - is a state that is in a state of war. Let it be not traditional, but “hybrid”, but no less real.

Therefore, if you apply “peacetime” standards to its budget, it will be extremely difficult to understand anything, much less accept it. Of course, unless you are a specialist who understands, and not a State Duma deputy who accepts.

With this necessary remark, which has nothing to do with the sacramental “war will write off everything” - especially since the Russian Federation is not officially waging any wars with anyone anywhere today - we can complete this as necessary (for we can consider changes in its specific articles, both income and and expenses, it makes sense only after final approval) a brief analysis of the financial document that passed through the State Duma in the first reading.